These are my top 16 takeaways from Benedict’s deck:
- OpenAI raised $6.6Bn from Microsoft, Softbank and Thrive Capital on a valuation of US$157Bn. It took Microsoft 20 years to get to US$20Bn.
- The top use cases for LLMs in production are: Software/IT, customer service & marketing
- Debate around whether LLM scaling is going to continue or slow down - no conclusion yet
- Today’s LLMs cost around $1Bn to build according to Anthropic CEO. Future could be $5Bn to $10Bn
- In 2024, the Big Four cloud players - Alphabet, AWS, Meta, Microsoft - spent US$220Bn on Capex
- LLM-based software no longer has near-zero marginal cost: meaning, “launch free, go viral, work out revenue later” does not work
- LMAREMNA - as a measure of model quality
- “Everyone in tech is giving someone else’s business model away for free”
- Air Canada pay damages after chatbot lies to grieving passenger about discount
- “AI gives you infinite interns”
- “internet made distribution free, LLM makes creation free”?
- Accenture booked US$1Bn in Aug 2024 for GenAI related work
- “There are two ways to make money - you can bundle or unbundle” - Jim Barksdale
- AI is just what doesn’t work yet: AI —> Smart —> Auto —> Just software
- Shopify powered $270Bn of ecommerce in last 12 months, 35% of AMZN GMV
- Software eats cars: Robotaxi trips in CA reached 300k in Aug 2024
https://www.ben-evans.com/presentations